Thematic report: how I read the memory cycle
Memory is the clearest example I know of a component going from commodity to bottleneck. Here is how I have been reading it, and what would change my mind.
Thematic reports are where I write up the ideas I am actually positioned around, in plain English and with the risks attached. They are free to read, you just need an email so I can send you the next one.
The short version: the AI buildout consumes memory in a way the last cycle did not, and supply takes years to add. That is the setup. The catch is that every cycle in this industry has ended, and the ones that ran hottest ended hardest.
What follows is the full read: where the demand actually comes from, why the supply response is slow, the numbers I watch, and the specific things that would tell me the thesis is breaking.